Tesla has started building its Optimus humanoid robot.
In its third-quarter update on October 21, Tesla said production had begun in Fremont, California, on a line that used to build the Model S and Model X. “The bots coming off this line are the first production-quality bots that we have manufactured,” the company said.
Elon Musk called it “early production” and said the ramp would be “somewhat bumpy because it is such a radically new product.” He expects deliveries to outside customers to start around the end of 2027. On the same call, he said:
The Hardest Part Is the Hand
Musk said the hand is still the main problem. It has to be gentle enough for delicate objects and tough enough to survive constant wear.
Jeff Brown agrees the hand has been the biggest obstacle for humanoid robots. He points to a Tesla patent that packs 25 motors into the Optimus forearm, driving flexible ligaments that work like tendons. He says the design is meant to let the hand crack an egg, thread a needle or swing a sledgehammer.
Every one of those motors needs power. Jeff says that if you send them raw electricity, a lot of energy is wasted as heat, the batteries drain quickly and the robot gets too hot.
His pick makes technology that controls and delivers power to the motors more efficiently, he says, helping a robot stay cool and run longer between charges. That matters for a machine that has to walk, work and move around like a human for hours at a time.
He says the company already supplies Tesla with a key piece of sensor technology. He wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up supplying Optimus too.
He Called Tesla When It Was Hated
In November 2018, while the media was mocking Elon, Jeff told his readers: “When I think about Tesla, I see one of the leading artificial intelligence companies in the world.” He calls it “the most hated and controversial recommendation I had ever made.”
He says Tesla went on to jump almost 2,200%. And he says his background, more than two decades as a senior executive at Qualcomm, NXP Semiconductors and Juniper Networks, helped him pick Nvidia before it jumped as high as 37,800%.
Selected peak figures, not typical results or subscriber returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
In 2019, while parts of the media called Starlink a “pipe dream,” he predicted it would get up and running and start selling its service. A year later, he says, it did.
Jeff still calls Tesla a great company over the long term. “But I’m not here to recommend Tesla,” he says.
Three Steps, Three Picks
Jeff says robots like Optimus are step three of Elon’s AI plan, and that Optimus will see the world with the same technology Tesla built for its self-driving cars. He’s picked a little-known company for each step.
Step 1: Chips
Elon’s Terafab chip project. Jeff believes he’s found the company that will supply the chip-making machine it needs.
Step 2: Energy
Jeff says Elon plans to put AI chips on satellites, powered by the sun. His pick is a company he says has worked with SpaceX for more than a decade, on chips used in every Starlink satellite and ground terminal.
Step 3: Robots
Self-driving Cybercabs and Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. His pick is the little-known Tesla supplier described above.
The short version
- Tesla has started building Optimus robots in California, and Musk says the hand is still the hardest part.
- Jeff Brown, who recommended Tesla in 2018, has picked a little-known company he says already supplies Tesla and could end up supplying Optimus.
- It’s one of three picks, one for each step of Elon’s AI plan: chips, energy and robots.
Jeff’s free presentation lays out all three steps. The companies’ names come with a paid subscription to The Near Future Report, which renews automatically each year.
Free to watch · Investing involves risk · Elon Musk hasn’t endorsed Jeff’s research. The picks are Jeff’s.
